Rukiga, Uganda – The Rukiga District political survey report by Visible Polls has revealed a dramatic collapse of opposition support, with the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) now commanding near-total dominance in an area once considered a stronghold of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The survey, conducted by Visible Polls between January and May 2025, shows that the FDC’s support has dwindled to a mere 4%, with the remaining voters overwhelmingly favoring the NRM.
This shift signals a significant political realignment in the district, which has a population of over 130,000 people, including both young and old, according to the latest census.
The decline of the opposition in Rukiga can be traced back to 2016 when NRM’s Herbert Kabafunzaki won the Rukiga County parliamentary seat with 21,510 votes, defeating FDC’s Sabiiti Chrissy Jack, who secured 14,986 votes.
Independent candidates Kampikaho Alexander, Sabiiti Wilber, and Ndyamweha Kodido Karamu trailed far behind with 4,122, 287, and 250 votes, respectively.
Kabafunzaki’s victory marked a turning point for NRM in the region, and his subsequent appointment as State Minister for Labor, Employment, and Industrial Relations further strengthened the party’s influence.
However, his political career was later tarnished by a bribery scandal, temporarily weakening NRM’s grip on the district. Yet despite this setback, the opposition failed to regain momentum as internal divisions within the FDC accelerated its decline.
The FDC, once a dominant opposition force under Dr. Kizza Besigye, has fractured since his departure to form the People’s Front for Transition (PFT), leaving supporters disillusioned and prompting defections to the ruling NRM.
Hon. Jack Sabiiti, a long-standing FDC figure in Rukiga, has remained with the party, but his influence has waned significantly.
With the FDC struggling both nationally and locally, many former supporters have shifted allegiance to the NRM, citing dissatisfaction with opposition leadership and the appeal of government-backed development programs.
Dr. Sylvia Arineitwe’s rise as NRM’s Rukiga District Woman MP flagbearer has solidified the ruling party’s dominance, with her hands-on approach and tangible impact winning over voters and further weakening opposition support.
Dr. Sylvia defeated incumbent MP Caroline Kamusiime Muhwezi in the party primaries and has since launched aggressive grassroots initiatives to consolidate her support.
One of her most notable programs is the distribution of over two million coffee seedlings to farmers across the district, facilitated by the Kigezi Farmers Transformation Initiative.
This project is expected to significantly boost local coffee production, with an estimated output of four million kilograms of coffee, valued at approximately six billion Ugandan shillings.
Sylvia’s vision is to integrate every household into what she calls the “Coffee Money Economy,” ensuring sustainable income for families while aligning with national agricultural development goals.
With the FDC reduced to a mere 4% in Rukiga and no strong alternative opposition party gaining traction, the district appears set for an NRM sweep in the 2026 elections.
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