RUKIGA, UGANDA – A stunning new voter survey in Rukiga District delivers a powerful political shock, with independent candidates surging dramatically ahead as steadfast support for traditional parties fractures.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The survey was conducted by the Rukiga Journalists’ Panel between November 10th and 27th, 2025, covering all political and administrative units of Rukiga District.
The study indicates a striking decline in voter support for established political party flag bearers, with independent candidates gaining unprecedented ground just one month before the general elections.
The survey, which assessed voter sentiment across the district’s 4 sub-counties, 2 town councils, and 293 villages, points to a notable erosion of trust in the campaign efforts of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party’s parliamentary candidates.
While the NRM and the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) remain the only two active parties with candidates for top seats, their official flag bearers are facing fierce competition from unaffiliated contenders.
The most startling finding is in the race for the Rukiga County parliamentary seat, where the ruling NRM party’s flag bearer is polling at only 32%.
The collective support for three independent candidates for the same seat commands a dominant 68% of voter preference, suggesting a potent desire for change outside traditional party structures.
In stark contrast, the race for Woman MP shows strong continuity, with the NRM candidate commanding a 93% survey rating against the NUP’s 2.7% with the independent candidate polls at 0.8%, while 3.5% of voters remain undecided.
Rukiga District now boasts 65,492 registered voters, a significant increase of 4,527 from the 60,965 registered in 2021, reflecting the area’s growing and politically engaged population.
The infrastructure for voting has also expanded, with polling stations increasing from 115 to 167, catering to a population of 132,355 (2024 Census).
Despite a recent campaign trail led by senior Presidential Advisor Mrs. Peace Rugambwa in the district, the survey indicates that voter sentiment on the ground remains solidified in its new pattern.
The Rukiga District Journalists’ Panel’s findings highlight a potentially transformative moment in the district’s politics, where voter dissatisfaction with party machinery is creating a powerful opening for independent voices.
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